Atmosphere & Weather — Extension · Earth & Space Science, Grade 9
Trace water and energy through the atmosphere and interpret changing weather evidence.
Make and Revise a Weather Forecast
Investigate
What forecast is supported by several observations taken together?
Plan three teaching sessions: define the model and comparison; run or analyze repeated supplied/collected records; then graph, explain, revise and submit the notebook. These independent home-study routes do not certify the school’s mandated investigations or laboratory minutes.
Materials
- Supplied weather observations
- Graph paper
- Notebook
Before you begin
This is a paper-and-data investigation. Use supplied illustrative data or teacher-approved observations. Do not enter hazardous sites to collect evidence.
Plan a fair test
Track time, pressure, temperature, wind, and cloud observations at one model station. There is no manipulated variable; weather processes can influence several measurements at once.
Method
- Graph pressure and temperature against time using separately labeled axes or graphs.
- Identify the largest changes and the associated wind/cloud observations.
- Predict the next six hours and state confidence and alternatives.
- Identify an additional observation, such as a radar image or neighboring station record, that would help.
- Compare your prediction with the provided final row after writing it.
- Revise the explanation and distinguish a pattern from a guaranteed rule.
Open the investigation data (illustrative)
Illustrative data created for this activity; these are not measurements from an actual site or an official reference table.
| Time | Pressure (hPa) | Temperature (°C) | Wind from | Cloud / precipitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 1014 | 18 | S | Scattered clouds |
| 09:00 | 1010 | 21 | S | Increasing clouds |
| 12:00 | 1006 | 23 | SW | Showers |
| 15:00 | 1009 | 16 | NW | Showers ending |
| 21:00 (check after prediction) | 1014 | 12 | NW | Partial clearing |
Analyze and explain
- What evidence is consistent with a cold-front passage?
- Which prediction was supported by the final row, and what remained uncertain?
- Why is low pressure alone insufficient to guarantee rain?
- Identify the system boundary, units and conditions held comparable.
- Explain how the graph or figure supports the mechanism rather than merely repeat its trend.
- State one uncertainty or scale limitation and design a follow-up comparison that could challenge the explanation.
What a strong explanation includes
- Cites pressure, temperature, and wind evidence
- Offers a forecast before examining the final row
- States uncertainty and a useful additional observation
- Does not treat association as a universal weather rule
- Keep observations separate from model-generated or supplied illustrative records.
- Explain a revision using the evidence and a stated model limitation.
Parent / teacher guide: discuss after the investigation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.
Compare this model with the learner’s actual evidence. Different measurements can support a different conclusion; check the reasoning and limitations, not matching wording.
Extend the chapter investigation by evaluating its evidence and proposing a better test.
Problem 1
Answer and explanation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.
Problem 2
Answer and explanation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.
Problem 3
Answer and explanation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.
Problem 4
Answer and explanation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.
Problem 5
Answer and explanation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.
Problem 6
Answer and explanation
Cooling from 23°C to 16°C, a wind shift from SW to NW, and rising pressure after showers are consistent with a cold front. A forecast of cooler conditions and possible clearing is supported by the final row, but exact timing and local rain depend on moisture and other conditions. Pressure alone cannot show whether enough moist air will rise and condense. A complete notebook also specifies the boundary, measurement units and matched conditions. Describe a mechanism connecting the pattern to the claim, then state a limitation and an additional comparison. Supplied illustrative outcomes are not a claim about your collected results; differences must be interpreted rather than corrected to match the example.